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Polymathica Refined.. Erudite.. Visionary © 2010 The Institute for Advanced
Social and Technological Analysis, LLC |
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The Information Age Knowledge Class IQ correlates well with the likelihood of entering and remaining
in an intellectually elite profession with the probability increasing to a
133 IQ. However, beyond that level,
the probability begins to decrease. By
140 IQ it has fallen by 1/3. By 150 IQ
it has fallen by 97%! This means that
over a quarter million English speakers are being excluded from participating
in those professions that could most use their intelligence. Their exclusion appears to be directly
related to inappropriate educational and productive environments. Furthermore, we conclude that this is an
Industrial Age phenomenon.
Consequently, as the global Information Age civilization emerges, we
assert that a profoundly affluent and polymathic Knowledge Class, comprised
primarily of the previously excluded high IQ population will will
concurrently emerge. Polymathica,
through its Polymathica Institute’s Fellowship, intends to play a critical,
facilitating role in that process. A Necessary Digression into Success and IQ When the use of IQ tests first became widespread, many groups
within the intellectual elites allowed themselves to be tested. The results were less
spectacular than one might have expected and today these groups do not
generally agree to testing. Medical
students had a mean IQ of 125.5 and a standard deviation of 6.5. (The
Journal of Medical Education, 1965, 40, 1130-1143) The science faculty of Cambridge University
had a mean IQ of 126.5 and a standard deviation of 6.3. (Nature,
1967, 213, 442) Top executives had an
average IQ of 124 and a standard deviation of 7.9. (Personnel Psychology,
1956, 9, 207-209) More recent evidence
suggests somewhat lower means for the various elites. Robert Hauser found mean IQs for professors of 115 and
for physicians of 121.
However, we believe that this is primarily a difference in the
definitions of the groups selected, rather than a deterioration in IQs among
intellectual elites. We present it to
demonstrate that while large groups of elites are no longer inclined to
subject themselves to IQ tests, the mean IQs of these groups has certainly
not gone up. From this we draw the
general conclusion that intellectual elites have a mean IQ of approximately
126 and a standard deviation of 6.7. The first attempt to assign IQs to exceptional people was Catherine
Cox’s 1926 review of 301
eminent people. These estimates
were most closely akin to a 16 point ratio IQ and must be restated for the
purposes of modern comparisions. For
example, This all ‘hangs together’ statistically. In other words, an IQ of 145 is at the
99.8%’ile of the elites from which these eminent members are selected. This implies that IQ is an important
component of success in entering and remaining in these elite professions and
that the most eminent among them have higher IQs to a statistically significant
degree. However, imbedded in these statistics
is a surprise.
By dividing the distribution of the elites (126 SD 6.7) by the
distribution of the general population (IQ 100 and SD 15) we can
statistically infer the relative probability that a person of any given IQ
will enter and remain in an intellectually elite profession. Not suprisingly, the probability increases
with higher IQ. It does so up to an IQ
of 133. It then begins to fall, slowly
at first but precipitously at higher IQ levels. By an IQ of 140 it has fallen by 1/3. By an IQ of 150 it has fallen by 97%! There are an estimated 250,000 English speaking people with IQs
over 150. They are being nearly
entirely excluded from intellectually elite professions. There are undoubtedly many reasons for this
peculiar inference. Certainly one is
the wholey inappropriate educational environments within which these people
find themselves. This is clearly
chronicled in a comparative
case study by Miraca U.M. Gross.
Additionally, the work of Keith Simonton on pursuasiveness,
leadership success and IQ is also relevant. When IQ was originally developed by Alfred Binet, it was a quotient
of Mental Age over Chronological Age.
This is referred to as a ratio IQ and, in a sense, is an absolute
scale. In other words, if a child is
precisely 8 years old and, when given the IQ test, scores identically to the
average 12 year old, the child’s ratio IQ is 12/8 X 100 = 150. When children are assessed this way,
however, the result is a significant overabundance of very high IQ
children. Some, such as Marilyn vos Savant,
have results that fall outside of the range of what is probable. In adults a related problem occurs. If a test is created and the results are
tabulated for 1,000 norming individuals selected at random, a standard
deviation of raw score can be calculated.
If we apply that standard deviation to a significantly larger population,
say one million, we find that too many people are scoring too high based upon
the statistics of the middle. They
both say the same thing, smart people appear to be
too smart, not just to succeed in contemporary Industrial Age settings, but
also in some absolute sense. Psychologist Leta Hollingworth, made the observation that, “… generally speaking, a leadership pattern will not form--or it
will break up--when a discrepancy of more than about 30 points of IQ comes to
exist between leader and led” Children
Above 180 IQ Stanford Binet: Origin and Development (1942 p. 287) It is critical, however, to note that the
Stanford Binet IQ test of that time rendered a 16 point ratio score. This means that the IQ of 180 corresponds
to a modern 15 point deviation IQ of 159.
When she indicates that there exists a critical difference of 30
points from her base IQ of 180, she is referring to a 150 16 point ratio IQ,
which corresponds to a 140 modern score.
Consequently the critical difference, at this level, in modern terms
is only 159-140 = 19 points. If we
take the modern IQ of the average imember of an ntellectual elite profession
of 126, it translates to a 16 point ratio IQ of 130. If we add 30 points to that we get 160,
which translates back to a 15 point deviation IQ of
147. This is an astonishing
result. What it means is that a person
with an IQ of more than 147 literally cannot take a leadership position among
today’s intellectual elites. They will
either detach from the leadership role or be expunged. We also see from Simonton, that the most persuasive people
within a population that has an average IQ of 126 will be 126+18=144. Dennisen,
interpreting Simonton, suggests that comprehension of this group will
approach zero when the individual within the elite has an IQ of 156 or
above. In total what this suggests is
that people of eminence within Industrial Age organizational structures, even
in intellectually elite groups with mean IQs of 126, will generally have IQ’s
between 144 to 147 and that there is a computed
absolute limit at 156. Most elites have mechanisms by which young members
progress from the bottom up. This is
most clearly evidenced in the large, hierarchical enterprise structures of
the Industrial Age. The recent
graduate will enter the organization at the professional level, proceed to
first level management, next to middle management and, finally, to senior
management. Many of the very high IQ
participants will distinguish themselves at the professional level. However, it is often perceived that the
person lacks the ‘people skills’ to succeed in management positions. This is how the organization interprets the
overy high IQ. While recognizing that some people do have difficulty with the
interpersonal demands of management, most often in the high IQ group, this
simply means that their IQ is above Simonton’s optimum 18 point differential
and, often, above the Hollingworth 30 point maximum. Even if the high IQ individual is given
first level management responsibility, the result is likely to be less than
satisfactory. Often this leads to a
process of demotion back to senior professional and almost universally
results in a stalling of the career progression. In other words, if one wants to find the
smartest people in a company, one should look to well tenured senior
professionals and first line managers.
According to Hauser, most professional groups have mean IQs
centering around 108. This suggests,
per Simonton, that the optimum IQ for a first level manager is 126. Translating to ratio IQs, applying
Hollingworth’s 30 pont differential and translating back to deviatin IQ, we
discover that the range of successful first line managers has a upper limit of 132.
This corresponds closely to the maximum probability of entrance into
an elite profession. Since middle
managers are selected from the population of successful first level
manager’s, their IQs, from a practical standpoint, cannot exceed the 132
limit of the human resource pool from which they are selected. The evidence, per the citation above, is
that the IQ of top executives, at 124 does not exceed the average of first
level managers. Because the original
population restricts the progression of intelligence with higher management
levels, other selection criteria must be used. This, in turn, leads to a generally poor
correlation between IQ and career success.
In other words, it is a function of the organizational processes not
of IQ, itself. The Emerging Knowledge Class We now understand that, over a broad range of educational and
productive environments, the relationship between leader and follower and
ranges of mutual understanding restrict the opportunities of exceptionally
intelligent people. These educational
and productive environments, however, are Industrial Age institutions. The Information Age is ushering in a
completely different set of institutions.
Several aspects of the Information Age strongly suggest that the
inverse correlation between measures of professional success and IQs above
133 will soon be ending. First among these new environmental factors is the creation of
significant, new social universes. In
our article, Polymathic Pundits, we conclude that Polymathica will be a
global community of refinement and erudtion with characteristic IQs between
120 and 144. Over time, its members
will create enterprises that will provide the products and services for
Polymathica. This constitutes a radical
new environment within which individuals in the problematical IQ range above
140 will have new opportunities for success.
Within Polymathica, the optimum leadership IQ (ratio vs deviation IQ
differences are significant) is 144.
In hierarchical Polymathica organizations, the range of success for
first level managers will be bounded on the top by the IQ of 152 which then
becomes the functional limit for organizational leadership. Howver, this means that over 93% of the
people with IQs over 140 who currently have difficulty succeeding in
traditional productive environments will have optimumal intelligence for
success within Polymathica organizations. However, the Information Age will be much more entrepreneurial
and traditional career progressions will be far less normative. Entrepreneurial organizations form from the
top down. In other words, very high IQ
people, such as Bill Gates and Sergei Brin, form new organizations and then
seek followers. The very high IQ
person starts at the top. A visionary
with an IQ of 160 will attract followers with IQs above 140 and a mean of
approximately 149. This process is
creating new, hyper-intellectual and, potentially, polymathic productive work
environments. In our articles, we
discuss new, Information Age polymathic knowledge professions that with
characteristic IQs of its incumbents that are above 150. As was the case with the Industrial Age, the Information Age
will have organizations that are comprised of intellectual elites. However, rather than averaging IQs of 126,
the average IQ, as we see from above, is likely to be around 150. This suggests that the persons of eminence
within these elites, rather than average IQs in the 144 to 146 range, will
likely average 160 and be bounded on the top by 167. Consequently, the usual institutions of
enterprise in Polymathica will accommodate all but the .000397% of the
population with deviation IQs of 168 or above. This is a population of approximately 2,500
English speakers. We expect that
nearly all of them, over time, will find their way to Polymathica. They can and should be intentionally
provided with exceptional educational and productive environments. Conclusion The preceding article is an extremely important aspect of
Polymathica. Simply put, its
leadership will not be created from individuals already occupying positions
of leadership within society. Rather,
Polymathica will allow
individuals who are currently experiencing difficulty in
succeeding in Industrial Age educational and productive environments a new
set of environments within which they likely will be more success prone. Another important consideration is that
high IQ does, in fact, correlate with superior solutions and decisions over
its entire range. The problem, as we
have seen, is not with the quality of the decisions but rather with the
ability of the organization to understand and appreciate their superior
quality. In other words, as the
Polymathica organizations within which the high IQ and polymathic knowledge professions
function begin to become established, they will simply outcompete
the traditional organizations. From
the organizational triumph will come the triumph of the Polymath and the
emergence of a polymathic Knowledge Class. |
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