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A Superior Knowledge of Futurity

Most of us know the story of the two men who are walking through the woods and come upon a bear. They both take off running and the bear, naturally, chases them. One man says to the other, ‘What are we doing? We can’t outrun a bear.’ The other man replies, ‘I don’t need to outrun the bear. I only need to outrun you!’ The same is true about predicting the future. You don’t need to get it exactly right. In fact, ample historical evidence demonstrates that it isn’t possible. Fortunately, you only need to get it better than the other guys. The Future 101 presents a proprietary, superior knowledge of futurity. In other words, Polymathica Fellows can get it more correct than the other guys. And that is, obviously, quite valuable. Because it is so critical to the value of Polymathica Fellowship, we will briefly discuss the three basic rules that we use to develop what we believe to be the best understanding of the future currently available.

Develop an objectively supportable world view:

The Universe does not care one whit if it violates liberal principles. The Universe has no particular preference for traditional family values. The Universe is completely unmoved by our common sense. Simply put, reality is indifferent to our beliefs, sensibilities or expectations of it. People, however, are not indifferent. Almost universally, even in the face of unambiguously dissonant evidence, people hold world views that feel ideologically comfortable. This completely destroys their ability to properly assess the future. By way of analogy, suppose a man travels 381 kilometers east by southeast. Where will he be? Clearly, that depends entirely upon where he was when he started. If one assumes that he started in San Francisco, the description of his destination will be entirely incorrect if, in reality, he started from Prague. By the same logic, if one considers the future starting from an ideologically comfortable rather than an objectively supportable world view, the predictive methodologies could be absolutely correct but the result will still be very wrong. Consequently, we constantly challenge ourselves with the question, ‘Is this assertion objectively supportable or is it attractive simply because it is ideologically comfortable?’

Utilize appropriate predictive tools:

It was not the French Evolution nor the Industrial Evolution nor the Sexual Evolution. History is not a story of trends. It is a story of periods of relative stability, punctuated by profound and rapid upheavals, discontinuities, transformations and realignments. As it has been in the past, so it will be in the future. So, even if one begins from an objectively supportable world view, one will misapprehend the future if one does not utilize the proper predictive tools. Rather than a set of trends, the proper analogical model for how the present becomes the future is a system of endogenously related time series equations. Such systems are frequently characterized by sudden discontinuities, similar to those studied in the mathematics of catastrophe theory. Only with such a model can one correctly anticipate the transformations inherent in the emergence of a global Information Age civilization. By 2100 A.D. everyone will understand that there was an Information Revolution. Everyone will understand that the revolution was not just about new technologies, but, like the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions before it, was also a comprehensive rewrite of the cultural frameworks and social institutions of civilization. The Future 101 provides Polymathica Fellows with a window on that future. The window is unavoidably frosted; you will note that we refer to a superior knowledge of futurity, not to predictions or forecasts. We recognize that, while powerful forces shape the future, in its details it is far from deterministic. It is relatively amenable to purposeful modification. The Fellows will be uniquely prepared to do so to their advantage.

Expect the future to often be counterintuitive:

The future is not so much unpredictable as it is implausible. We know this because most significant historical events, in hindsight, are generally accepted to have been inevitable. However, what is obvious in retrospect was unbelievable in anticipatory consideration. Consider this; there has been no time in the past two hundred years when the world thirty years hence would have been generally believed. It naturally follows that an accurate description of the world thirty years from today will also be met with general disbelief. Put another way, if you are aware of a prediction and it seems reasonable to you, history, not us, tells you that it is almost certainly wrong. Anyone who is at all familiar with quantum physics understands that sometimes reality requires us to accept conclusions that offend our common sense. The future is the same. Because systems of endogenously related time series equations are recursive, sometimes the reaction swamps the expected result of an action. A classic example was the 1990 10% tax on yachts that actually lowered tax revenue and destroyed the U.S. yacht manufacturing industry. In order to accept a superior knowledge of futurity, one must first be willing to entertain arguments that are, on the surface, counterintuitive, even seemingly absurd.

Within this context, The Future 101 presents the story of The Transformation. It differs from Transhumanism and Singularitarianism in two vitally important ways. First, it is not particularly controversial. Nearly all predictions of The Transformation are well documented and supported. We discuss some of the poorly supported assumptions at the core of Singularitarainism in our public article, ‘The Singularity is Not Near.’ Second, it is imminent. The Transformation began in earnest around 1980 and will reach its period of greatest change between 2010 and 2030. In other words, if you are just finding out about it, you already need to play a little catch-up.

In the Public Articles of Polymathica.com we discuss some of the most important points of the Transformation. The purpose of providing public access to some proprietary information is to provide you with decision making materials to assist in determining whether Polymathica Fellowship is likely to be beneficial for you.

An expanded, detailed and ongoing discussion of The Future 101 is one of the two most important benefits of Fellowship. It is, after a fashion, basic training for the Information Age knowledge professions - what we refer to as Polymaths. As a Fellow, you will be directed to a course of study. You will be provided with an ongoing publication of The Future 101 articles and have access to periodic audio presentations. Through a Polymathica Radio functionality you will, with time be presented with a call-in Q&A opportunity. Some Fellows may come to Polymathica with well defined career objectives that they believe will be facilitated through Fellowship. Others, probably most, will be exploring opportunities within the Fellowship. A handful may be primarily interested in investment opportunities. Whatever your current situation, Fellowship will provide you, through The Future 101, with the best knowledge of futurity currently available.